The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in Cape Verde, one of the main economic indicators that measures how families feel about their financial situation and the country's economy, registered a negative evolution in the first quarter of 2025. This behaviour reflects the continuation of the downward trend observed at the end of 2024, according to data released by the National Statistics Institute (INE) INE Cape Verde.
In the period under review, the ICC was below the historical average of the series, showing a slight decline in the confidence of Cape Verdean families. This decline is partly attributable to consumers' negative perception of the evolution of the national economy and the increase in prices and unemployment, as reported by those surveyed in the consumer climate survey Trading Economics.
Despite the drop, the indicator remained close to the average of the historical series, suggesting that although there is pessimism about the short term, there are signs of cautious optimism for the future. This scenario is corroborated by the fact that some families show intentions to invest in housing over the next few years, even in a context of economic uncertainty Forbes Lusophone Africa.
Analysis of this indicator is crucial to understanding consumer behaviour and the impact of their expectations on the Cape Verdean economy. This report explores in detail the factors behind the negative evolution of the CCI, its economic implications and the outlook for the coming quarters.
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In the first quarter of 2025, the Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) in Cape Verde registered a negative evolution, maintaining the downward trend observed at the end of 2024. According to the National Statistics Institute (INE), the index was below the average of the historical series, reflecting an environment of economic uncertainty that continues to impact Cape Verdean families (Island Express).
Respondents reported a worsening perception of the country's economic situation compared to the same period last year. This deterioration was accompanied by an increase in prices and unemployment, factors that contributed to a decrease in confidence in the short term (Forbes Lusophone Africa).
Despite the negative evolution of the CCI, the families surveyed indicated that the economic situation of their households had improved slightly over the last 12 months. This contrast between the perception of the domestic economy and the national economy suggests that households are adjusting their expectations based on personal experiences, while continuing to face macroeconomic challenges (Island Express).
However, households' ability to save has also seen a positive evolution. Compared to the first quarter of 2024, the number of households that consider it possible to save increased slightly, while the percentage of those that consider saving unfeasible fell by 23.5 percentage points (Forbes Lusophone Africa).
Prices and unemployment were identified as critical factors contributing to the decline in consumer confidence. Over the last 12 months, respondents reported significant increases in both areas, which reinforced the perception of economic fragility. This scenario is consistent with the trend seen in previous quarters, where inflation and difficulties in the labour market continued to put pressure on household budgets (Island Express).
Although the CCI registered a negative evolution, the index remained above the average of the historical series in certain periods. This indicates that, despite the difficulties, Cape Verdean families still have a moderate level of confidence. However, the continuous decline in the index over seven consecutive quarters reflects a scenario of prolonged economic uncertainty, which may make it difficult for confidence to recover in the medium term (Trading Economics).
Despite the negative evolution in the first quarter of 2025, those surveyed showed some optimism for the future. According to INE data, the financial situation of families and the country's economy are expected to improve over the next 12 months. This positive expectation can be attributed to government initiatives and the gradual recovery of key sectors such as tourism, which plays a crucial role in the Cape Verdean economy (News of the World).
In the first quarter of 2025, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in Cape Verde showed a negative evolution compared to the same period in 2024, maintaining the downward trend seen at the end of 2024. The indicator was below the average of the historical series, reflecting a slight decrease in the confidence of Cape Verdean families. This negative performance was highlighted by the National Statistics Institute (INE), which pointed out that, despite the deterioration, the economic situation of households improved slightly over the last 12 months, while the perception of the national economy continued to deteriorate (Island Express).
Compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, when the ICC registered 13 points, the first quarter of 2025 showed a continuation of the downward trend, but with less intensity. This behaviour reflects the persistence of adverse economic factors, such as rising prices and the perception of a national economy in difficulty.
The performance of the CCI in the fourth quarter of 2024 marked a significant drop, falling from 16 points in the third quarter to 13 points at the end of the year. This decline was attributed to a combination of factors, including rising inflation and global economic uncertainty, which affected Cape Verdean consumer confidence (Trading Economics).
In the first quarter of 2025, although the CPI continued to fall, the magnitude of the drop was smaller, suggesting a possible stabilisation of confidence at low levels. This behaviour can be interpreted as a reflection of Cape Verdean families adapting to adverse economic conditions, but with no clear signs of recovery.
Compared to the same period last year, the CCI in the first quarter of 2025 showed a negative evolution. In the first quarter of 2024, the indicator was above the historical average, reflecting cautious optimism driven by expectations of a post-pandemic economic recovery. However, continuing economic challenges, such as the rising cost of living and global instability, reversed this positive trend throughout 2024, culminating in the deterioration seen at the start of 2025.
This contrast highlights a significant shift in consumer sentiment from moderate optimism to a more pessimistic outlook, influenced by factors such as persistent inflation and the slowdown in economic growth.
Historically, the CCI in Cape Verde averaged 14.06 points between 2009 and 2024, with a maximum of 24 points in the first quarter of 2010 and a minimum of 4 points in the fourth quarter of 2015 (Trading Economics). In the first quarter of 2025, the indicator was below this average, reflecting a confidence level below the historical standard.
The comparison with the historical average highlights the seriousness of the current situation, indicating that Cape Verdean consumers face significant economic challenges that negatively affect their confidence. This below-average performance also emphasises the need for effective economic policies to restore confidence and boost consumption.
Analysing long-term trends reveals that the CCI in Cape Verde has faced significant fluctuations, influenced by global and local economic events. For example, the index reached its highest point in 2010, during a period of robust economic growth, and its lowest point in 2015, during a severe economic crisis.
In the current context, the downward trend observed since the end of 2024 suggests that consumers continue to face economic uncertainty. However, expectations for the coming quarters could be moderately positive if economic conditions improve and government policies manage to mitigate the impacts of inflation and stimulate economic growth.
This detailed analysis of the CCI's performance in the first quarter of 2025, compared to previous periods, provides a comprehensive overview of the challenges and opportunities for the Cape Verdean economy. Continued monitoring and the implementation of effective policy measures will be crucial to restoring consumer confidence and promoting sustainable economic development.
The decline in consumer confidence in Cape Verde observed in the first quarter of 2025 has a direct impact on domestic consumption, which is one of the main drivers of the economy. When consumers perceive an uncertain economic environment, they tend to reduce their spending on non-essential goods and services, prioritising savings or paying off debts. This behaviour results in a contraction of domestic demand, negatively affecting sectors such as commerce, catering and services, which depend heavily on private consumption.
According to the National Statistics Institute (INE)The majority of Cape Verdean families reported a negative perception of the national economy over the last 12 months, which has contributed to a reduction in consumption. This scenario is aggravated by rising prices and unemployment, which put pressure on family budgets and limit consumption capacity. The fall in the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) to 13 points in the fourth quarter of 2024, as reported by the Trading Economicsreflects this trend of economic retraction.
Reduced consumer confidence also has repercussions on the labour market, since the decline in domestic consumption leads companies to adjust their operations, often by cutting costs, which can include layoffs or hiring freezes. This cycle creates a negative feedback effect, where rising unemployment further reduces consumer confidence, perpetuating the economic contraction.
According to INE, os inquiridos identificaram o desemprego como um dos fatores mais preocupantes nos últimos 12 meses. Este aumento do desemprego, aliado à inflação, contribui para a perceção de instabilidade económica, que afeta tanto os trabalhadores como os empregadores. O setor do turismo, que representa cerca de 25% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) de Cabo Verde, é particularmente vulnerável a estas flutuações, dado que a redução da procura turística tem um impacto direto nos níveis de emprego do setor.
A evolução negativa do ICC também influencia os padrões de poupança e investimento das famílias cabo-verdianas. Apesar de algumas famílias terem relatado melhorias na situação económica dos seus lares, como mencionado pelo INE, a maioria continua a enfrentar dificuldades em poupar devido ao aumento dos custos de vida e à incerteza económica.
A redução da confiança tem levado muitas famílias a adiar decisões de investimento, como a compra de habitação ou a aquisição de bens duráveis, que são frequentemente vistos como compromissos financeiros de longo prazo. Este comportamento, embora compreensível num contexto de incerteza, limita o crescimento de setores como a construção civil e o mercado imobiliário, que dependem de investimentos familiares. No entanto, o Diário Económico aponta que há um aumento no número de famílias que consideram investir em habitação nos próximos dois anos, o que pode sinalizar uma recuperação gradual da confiança.
A redução da confiança dos consumidores também coloca pressão adicional sobre os serviços públicos e as políticas governamentais. Com o aumento do desemprego e a diminuição do consumo, a arrecadação de receitas fiscais tende a cair, limitando a capacidade do governo de financiar programas sociais e de investimento público. Este cenário pode agravar ainda mais as desigualdades económicas e sociais, especialmente entre as populações mais vulneráveis.
Para mitigar os impactos da crise de confiança, o governo cabo-verdiano tem implementado medidas para estimular a economia e restaurar a confiança dos consumidores. Estas incluem iniciativas para apoiar o setor do turismo, que é crucial para a recuperação económica do país, e programas de assistência social para aliviar o impacto da inflação nas famílias de baixa renda. No entanto, a eficácia destas medidas dependerá da capacidade do governo de equilibrar as restrições orçamentais com a necessidade de estímulo económico.
Além dos impactos económicos, a evolução negativa da confiança dos consumidores tem efeitos significativos no bem-estar psicológico e social das famílias cabo-verdianas. A incerteza económica e o aumento do desemprego contribuem para níveis mais elevados de stress e ansiedade, que podem afetar a saúde mental e a qualidade de vida das populações.
A redução da confiança também pode enfraquecer o tecido social, uma vez que as famílias e comunidades enfrentam desafios crescentes para manter os seus padrões de vida e apoiar os membros mais vulneráveis. Este cenário sublinha a importância de políticas públicas que não apenas abordem os desafios económicos, mas também promovam o bem-estar social e psicológico.
Em suma, a evolução negativa do ICC em Cabo Verde no primeiro trimestre de 2025 destaca a complexidade dos desafios económicos e sociais enfrentados pelo país. A recuperação da confiança dos consumidores será essencial para impulsionar o crescimento económico e melhorar o bem-estar das famílias, exigindo uma abordagem integrada que combine políticas económicas eficazes com medidas de apoio social.
A análise do Indicador de Confiança no Consumidor (ICC) em Cabo Verde no primeiro trimestre de 2025 revelou uma evolução negativa, refletindo a continuidade da tendência descendente observada desde o final de 2024. Este desempenho foi influenciado por fatores como o aumento dos preços e do desemprego, que agravaram a perceção de incerteza económica entre os consumidores. Apesar disso, registou-se uma ligeira melhoria na situação económica das famílias e na capacidade de poupança, sugerindo uma adaptação parcial às condições adversas. Contudo, o ICC manteve-se abaixo da média histórica, evidenciando um nível de confiança inferior ao padrão habitual, o que sublinha a gravidade do contexto económico atual (Island Express).
Os impactos desta evolução negativa são significativos, abrangendo desde a redução do consumo interno, que afeta setores económicos chave, até ao aumento do desemprego e à pressão sobre os serviços públicos. A retração da confiança também limita o investimento familiar e agrava as desigualdades sociais, enquanto contribui para o aumento do stress e da ansiedade entre as populações. Para mitigar estes efeitos, será essencial implementar políticas económicas eficazes que promovam a recuperação da confiança, como o estímulo ao setor do turismo e medidas de apoio às famílias mais vulneráveis. Além disso, a monitorização contínua do ICC e a adaptação das políticas públicas às necessidades emergentes serão cruciais para restaurar a estabilidade económica e social no médio prazo (Trading Economics).
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